"Societal values are expressed in terms of the relative importance of things to people. They lend stability and give a sense of direction and generally regulate behaviour," says Georges T. Roos, philosopher and independent futurologist from Lucerne (2). "This is why the question of future values is a central aspect of shaping the future. How will the values of Swiss society develop and change?“ This is the question that the Swiss Society for Future Research, swissfuture, wanted to look into, and for which it commissioned a corresponding study. The results of the study, entitled "Changes in values in Switzerland 2004-2014-2024“, was presented at a meeting that took place at the SwissRe Conference Centre for Global Dialogue in Rüschlikon at the end of March. "The psychological climate in Switzerland", a collection of data covering 30 years from the Swiss Market Research Institute Demoscope (3), provided the basis for the study. "The four scenarios are based on different sociodemographic, economic, political and territorial conditions," says Roos. Two of the scenarios, EgoMania and Balancing, are based on the assumption of a prosperous and the other two, Clash and Mind Control, on the assumption of adverse development. "We know from an analysis of the changes over the past thirty years that key economic data are pivotal variables of changes in values."

Open, playful and carefree

The scenario "EgoMania“ is characterised by a particularisation and individualisation of life-styles. Materialism and the maximisation of personal pleasure and profit are trumps. Politics is characterised by a curtailment in social security and increased economic liberalisation, and consumption by competition and a race for things new and different. People are open, playful and carefree in their attitude to technology and medicine. According to swissfuture this scenario will have emerged by 2024 with 35 per cent probability, and there is a 50 per cent probability that a modified version of "EgoMania" will become apparent in ten years' time.

Technophobe or technophile? Futurist scientists give both attitudes good chances of realisation in the year 2024. large

The dominant feature of the "Clash“ scenario is a conflict-laden society that uses its elbows and is distrusting and anxious. Basic needs stand in conflict with luxury and post-material requirements. This finally leads to a polarisation and splits society into two camps. This also becomes apparent in the areas of technology and medicine. "Health is greeted with fatalism by the young and is a constant source of worry to the old," as the report summarises. Scientists are viewed with suspicion and this leads to an economy-unfriendly climate. The modified version of this scenario has a 50 per cent of becoming reality in ten years' time. The chances of the full version for 2024 are reckoned to have a 35 per cent chance.

Women are underrepresented in technological professions. Futurist scientists would welcome more female students. Picture: Susi Lindig large

The third scenario "Balancing“ is optimistic. The population of Switzerland is oriented to a high quality of life, ready to work hard to realise their individual potential. Culture is the sport of choice of the masses. The economy is flourishing thanks to an enterprising climate. The population has an open-minded attitude to technology and medicine and is generally open, risk-aware and geared towards autonomy. This scenario is granted a 20 per cent chance of probability for 2024. No chance at all is given to a modified version happening by 2014.

"Mind Control" describes a moralist society that is characterised by a coercive pressure for solidarity. Zero-tolerance policies have been adopted towards crime, and foreigners are met with intolerance. Consumerism is frowned upon and considered to be decadent. Attitudes to technological and medical innovation are hostile and moves abound for strict regulations. This scenario is given just a 10 per cent probability for 2024; it has no chance for 2014.

"We have to make great efforts"

"Either we turn our backs on technology or we embrace it as a positive part of our lives," is how Andrea Leu, from Engineers Shape our Future, sums up the results of a panel discussion from the engineering sciences point of view. The question is, can trends towards one scenario or the other be influenced? "We have to make great efforts to ensure that technology is placed in a good light, again" considers Andreas Steiner, an ETH mechanical engineer, chairman of the Belimo Holding AG and president of the research commission of Economiesuisse. He notes strong scepticism – even though the term "technology" is positively loaded.

New area of activity: genetic technology

"Lots of people have a positive attitude towards new developments as long as they expect them to be useful," says Sergio Bellucci, Head of the Centre for the Assessment of the Consequences of Technology and ETH agronomist. A good example of this is genetic technology. Drugs resulting from genetically modified organisms are perceived as positive, issues of green genetic technology, on the other hand, as negative. Michael Siegrist, who lectures in psychology at the University of Zurich and ETH Zurich agrees. "Our culture isn't hostile to technology in per se. But some technologies polarise." "And," he adds provocatively, "NGOs, like Greenpeace, need a battle field. After the nuclear one, they now look for a new one in genetic technology."

Specialists agree on one point: public attention must be drawn to the positive aspects of the engineering sciences by more reporting. And more must be done to recruit students for this course of studies, especially women who are underrepresented.